Ivan's marched into South Ossetia in support of the separatists against Georgia. Given the state of the world, one might ask "so what?"
Well, this isn't just another G-8 war machine rolling on a relatively helpless country full of brown people; Georgia's a US ally with about 2,000 troops in Iraq right now (half of which are being recalled to fight the Russians), and their arsenal actually consists of more than 20-year-old Kalashnikovs. Considering there are plenty of other former Soviet Republics turned US Allies in the region with their own little Russian separatist problems (some of which have actually weighed in on the latest conflict by launching rockets into Georgia), it looks like things are set for an old fashioned brawl between well armed caucasians in none other than the caucasus.
Posts
8 comments:
Georgia claims to have shot down 10 Russian planes. Russia admits to 2. I would pin the numbers closer to Georgia's claims, as the Russians are only admitting the losses that have been caught on camera.
I'm not rooting for either side; war sucks in basically every circumstance and innocent people are dying right now. That being said, it's probably better for the US if Georgia wins somehow. It's hard to define what a "win" would even be.
Things are looking FUBARed.
I'm not a fan of Russia trying to be all badass again.
I don't mean to get all political, but do you think they would have the balls for this if the US army wasn't tied up in Iraq?
Doubt it. It's all hypothetical, of course, but I agree with you that foreign leaders, especially ones prone to antagonism such as Russia, view the conflict-preventing ability of the U.S. military with a little less respect because we're bogged down in friggin' Iraq.
At least this whole thing proves beyond doubt that Putin is still in charge of the military there. That sucks.
They would have been irresponsible if they hadn't done anything. Georgian artillery strikes killing Russian citizens isn't something you just ignore, even if it's not happening in Russia. Do you honestly think a US reaction to an analogous situation would be any less?
When the US and EU gave Kosovo the go-ahead, they basically also gave Russia the justification to step up efforts to aid neighboring breakaway regions that want to be annexed. This isn't the case of some big bad power picking on a little guy; the little guy is South Ossetia, and Russia is intervening on their behalf.
And yeah, they probably would have had the balls, because the question of US level of involvement is political, not military in nature. If US pertubment reaches the point where they even consider a military intervention on a scale such that involvement in Iraq would be a distraction, then both sides would have moved well beyond the current state of relations to the point where military considerations are moot.
Obviously you're right about the original nature of the conflict, Lance, but I think what Brian and I are talking about is the fact that Russia is going beyond what it needs to do to end it. Turmoil in South Ossetia is in the Russians' best interests because the less stable Georgia is, the less likely it is to join NATO, and hence its power is greatly reduced. The U.S. would be much more likely to deal directly (i.e., militarily) with an attack on its ally if we weren't in Iraq, and I'm sure Putin is thinking the same thing. That would explain the larger invasion that they're about to start.
...and I don't think the response is disproportionate at all. The fact is that this was not a premeditated act to topple the Georgian leadership, though it may turn into such before the end. Russia was caught off-guard by Georgia's response to the separatists, and have been winging it the whole way.
They'd be stupid not to take full advantage of the situation to be in as a favorable position as they can be in before they cease fire. The only limiters to how far they can go in Georgia, at this point, would be international opinion and how likely their moves will stir more proactive responses from places like the Ukraine. Occupy (well, more like liberate, since they want it) the two separatist regions, and remove Georgia's ability to initiate future conflicts: no, it's not a solution that makes the US happy, but it is one that will leave the region in peace. The separatists are where they want to be, and Georgia is subdued from taking retaliatory action; Serbia and Kosovo, basically. The trick is to do it without catalyzing further conflicts elsewhere, and I don't think Ivan has quite reached that threshold yet. If ground forces actually start moving on Tblisi, then we can talk.
NATO has been slowly slipping it in over the years, basically ignoring the very reasonable accusations of encirclement by the Russians (and don't give me the "paranoid" bullshit. Just look at how much the US shat itself-with good reason-when Cuba quit the casino business.) and basically, Russia has drawn the line: "sending a strong message" or "detering expansion" in American terms.
Here's a great ad that appeared when the last comment got e-mailed to me:
Russia Invades Georgia?
Should Russian Tanks Be In Georgia? Vote Now In Our 1-minute Poll!
LOL America and its zany adverts.
btw I'm sure there's some idiot hick in the atlanta boonies going totally dear hunter right now.
Post a Comment